All posts by ZJ

The Fatal Flaw That Bitcoin Bulls Refuse to Discuss

Amid all the furor over bitcoin – the virtual currency is trading around $6,000 currently, following six-fold growth in 2017 – a key detail on how the currency actually works has been lost. Or perhaps this detail has been deliberately omitted by bitcoin bulls because it damns bitcoin as a viable future currency. I’m speaking of the currency’s much-ballyhooed limit of 21 million bitcoins in circulation. The very feature hyped most by the bulls is bitcoin’s Achilles heel. I’ve seen only economists discuss this limit but then be drowned out by a chorus of bitcoin bulls who say the economists “just don’t get it.” Continue reading The Fatal Flaw That Bitcoin Bulls Refuse to Discuss

New article on TFS Financial at Seeking Alpha

I’ve just added a new article on TFS Financial at Seeking Alpha. The piece is entitled “TFS Financial – A Misunderstood Bank Cheaper Than It Appears.” I note in the article:

TFS Financial (TFSL) is a misunderstood bank trading at 9 times this year’s earnings even as interest rates are poised to rise. Its management team has been buying back stock aggressively for years using a huge pool of excess capital, its loan delinquencies are miniscule, and it’s paying a 4.5% forward dividend yield.

TFS Financial’s stock has been flat for a while now, and I think it offers an excellent reward for the risk at today’s price. Click over to SeekingAlpha to read the whole article and why the stock could be poised for further gains.

New Article at Seeking Alpha

I decided to begin publishing at SeekingAlpha.com, and my first article is now live: Cable One Has More Room to Run. As I note in the article:

Cable One (NYSE: CABO) has had a nice run since its spinoff from Graham Holdings Company (NYSE: GHC) in mid-2015. Since then the stock is up nearly 60%, but with Cable One’s valuation now at 11.8x pro forma forward EBITDA, are the good times over?

I continue to like Cable One despite the rise. Click over to SeekingAlpha to read the whole article and why the stock could be poised for further gains.

Last Week for Our Top Dividend Stock for 2016 Report

With 2016 in its final few months, I’m about to close access to Our Top Dividend Stock for 2016 report. I picked Care Capital Properties (CCP), which was a 2015 spinoff from Ventas (VTR). Care Capital trades at a ridiculously low multiple to cash flow, and it retained the managers that nursed the company from inside the top-rated Ventas for years. I still think the market isn’t giving the stock the credit it deserves.  To see our entire report on the company, just drop your email in the box at the top of the page.

The report will remain available until November 5.

Good Riddance to NorthStar Management

NRF imageNorthStar Realty Finance (NRF), NorthStar Asset Management (NSAM), and Colony Capital (CLNY) finally agreed to the tie-up that they had pre-announced a few weeks ago. The move cures a number of problems at the troubled NorthStar businesses, the most important of which is the company’s own management, who are largely ousted as part of the merger of the three real estate companies. But management will have their pound of flesh before they exit, including a huge takeover premium for insiders. Yep, the same management who helped create this mess takes home another huge payday. Continue reading Good Riddance to NorthStar Management

CRA International Issues Tender Offer

CRA-InternationalInc.-logoCRA International (CRAI) joins the ranks of the many companies participating in a tender offer. The company is offering to purchase up to $30 million of its stock, or between 17% and 18.7% of its outstanding shares, depending on the purchase price. It’s offering to buy at a price between $18 and $19.75 per share. With the stock now at $18.96, after jumping 11% on the news, there’s no risk-free profit here, however, unless the stock drops. With the stock in a long-term downtrend, it looks like many investors may be willing to cash out at the low end of the range. So for those investors looking for a quick buck, it’s probably better to move on. But the CRA International tender offer does have my favorite provision for small shareholders, the odd lot priority. Continue reading CRA International Issues Tender Offer

Fortress Investment Ready to Invest in Itself

fortress-logoFortress Investment Group (FIG) joins the ranks of the many companies participating in a tender offer. The company is offering to purchase up to $100 million of its stock, or between 9.5% and 10.6% of its outstanding shares, depending on the purchase price. It’s offering to buy at a price between $4.25 and $4.75 per share. With the stock now at $3.96, there’s some risk-free profit here, but probably not enough to make it worth your while. With the stock in a long-term downtrend, it looks like many investors may be willing to cash out at the low end of the range. So for those investors looking for a quick buck, it’s probably better to move on. But the Fortress Investment tender offer does have my favorite provision for small shareholders, the odd lot priority. Continue reading Fortress Investment Ready to Invest in Itself

Nationstar Mortgage Bets Big on Itself

NSMNationstar Mortgage (NSM) joins the ranks of the many companies participating in a tender offer. The company is offering to purchase up to $100 million of its stock, or between 10.3% and 11.9% of its outstanding shares, depending on the purchase price. It’s offering to buy at a price between $8.20 and $9.40 per share. With the stock now at $8.61 and flat on the news, there’s a little chance of a risk-free profit here, however. With the stock in a long-term downtrend, it looks like many investors may be willing to cash out at the low end of the range, and that’s what’s implied by the tender offer, which straddled the stock price, instead of the usual premium. So for those investors looking for a quick buck and who didn’t already own the stock, it’s probably better to move on. But the Nationstar Mortgage tender offer does have my favorite provision for small shareholders, the odd lot priority. Continue reading Nationstar Mortgage Bets Big on Itself

Finally Some Sense On NorthStar From An Investment Bank

NRF imageWe finally got an investment bank to write up a balanced synopsis of the situation at NorthStar Realty Finance (NRF). UBS came out with a short report on the REIT, and well, let’s just say it wasn’t the ridiculous “sky is falling” hatchet job that appeared yesterday from KBW and that we subsequently skewered for the intellectually dishonest exercise that it was. Here’s the text of that UBS report. Continue reading Finally Some Sense On NorthStar From An Investment Bank

This NorthStar Downgrade is a Joke, Right?

NRF imageThe NorthStar downgrade – where a Keefe Bruyette Woods analyst lowered his price target on NorthStar Realty Finance (NRF) from $23 to $13 per share – must be a joke, right? This downgrade comes from the same analyst we highlighted in November for his arbitrary discount for external management. Now he’s back with more of the twisted logic of that earlier report, except this time, in addition to the lower price target the analyst lowered his rating from outperform to market perform. All this follows after the stock has fallen well below even the revised price target of $13. Cart, meet horse. So what’s so backward about this downgrade? Continue reading This NorthStar Downgrade is a Joke, Right?